Calling AV Politicos...Less than a month to go, what does McCain have to do to turn this election in his favor?

There is a lot of confusion right now with the on-again, off-again and now on-again "Bailout" getting passed. Several polls I've read (including by Republican pollsters) say that the last couple of weeks have been bad for McCain and good for Obama. With time running out, what do you see McCain doing to turn the tide?

Is this campaign about to turn REAL ugly? Asked by HankMoody 42 months ago Similar Questions: Calling AV Politicos month McCain turn election favor Recent Questions About: Calling AV Politicos month McCain turn election favor Politics & Law > Politics.

Similar Questions: Calling AV Politicos month McCain turn election favor Recent Questions About: Calling AV Politicos month McCain turn election favor.

Negative ads In a lot of ways, little has really changed. McCain got a bounce from the convention and from the gutsy nomination of Palin. Then we got to know Palin (people always pin their hopes on politicians they don't know, and turn on them when they take actual stands, as we saw with Fred Thompson), and the bounce fell back.

The votes now stand more or less exactly where they did before the conventions, with Obama having a 3-6 point lead. Unfortunately, that doesn't really demonstrate the depths of McCain's problems, since he's got to win the Electoral College, and there Obama is doing much better. Again, it's more or less right back to where it was before the conventions, but it still puts McCain behind by some 80 electoral votes, and more by some reckoning.

McCain's strategy, at least for the moment, appears to be negative advertising; this week essentially all of his money is going for negative ads. That has been a tried-and-true strategy at this point in the campign. It's a lot easier to sow doubt about your opponent, especially in a short period of time, than to build up confidence in you.

If you don't have confidence in McCain by now, after a quarter-century in the Senate and a year of him in the news, you're not going to. I'd love to say that he could build himself up as the "maverick" candidate, but there's just no time for it. Obama is ripe for negative advertising, especially in the rust-belt states where they worry about him being "too liberal" and are essentially looking for an excuse not to vote for him even though he's the pro-union candidate.

If he wants to win, he's going to have to focus hard on particular states. He has already conceded Michigan, one of the few states that went blue in 2004 that might have flipped in 2008. He probably hoped for a 50-state strategy, but with Obama so far ahead in so many states, he's going to have a hard time getting that kind of momentum.

Right now, Obama is leading in these states: Colorado Florida Iowa Nevada New Mexico Ohio Virginia All of which Bush won in 2004. Right now, McCain would have to win every single one of these battles to win. The only leeway he he has would be to pick up Pennsylvania, where Obama's lead is narrow.

These are all states where a good round of negative ads will play up Obama's weaknesses: inexperience, liberalism, maybe subtle hints at his background. He also MUST defend North Carolina, where the race is too close to call. He's got finite dollars to put there.

It would probably be a good place to park Sarah Palin. She does rather well with a prepared speech, and she would do a good job securing it for McCain. It would be cheap, allowing him to spend his dollars elsewhere.

He's going to need money, lots of it. Unfortunately, at this point he's tied down by the campaign finance rules. He's going to have to work through the 527s to pull off a lot of this negative advertising.

Honestly, the best thing to do might be to skirt the rules and coordinate directly with some 527s, at least deferring getting caught until after November. It worked for the Swift Boat Vets, who were heavily fined, but not until after the damage was done. I do have one other idea for McCain, though it's a very, very long shot.

There's a referendum in California about it's gay-marriage law. If McCain were to put a massive effort into getting voters out to oppose that law, it could cause a 110 EV swing all at once. It would be a massive undertaking, since he's down by about 15 points in California, but if he can surprise Obama with the strategy it just might work.

That aside, I think McCain mostly needs help from Obama. Obama can easily trip over himself at one of the debates. Perhaps especially the final one, on economics, where Obama enjoys a somewhat mysterious positive perception based mostly on not being part of the Bush team.

If McCain can cast significant doubt on Obama's ability to solve the problems. Point at lack of specifics, and essentially accuse him of socialism, which is what Palin did at the VP debates. I don't think it played well for her, but McCain can do it better.

McCain's going to need luck to pull it out at this point, but in the remaining month there are plenty of chances for things to break his way. If he's prepared to handle the breaks when he gets them, mostly by having already sown significant doubt about Obama, he'll seem prescient. Even if he's behind in the polls up to the last minute, people may simply decide Obama's just not ready.

1 I think it's going to get VERY ugly really soon. Our local's are going at it with the gloves off. It worries me that the politicians reach back so far to find ugly things about the others, then state how perfect they are, are christian, or something other that contridicts themselves......

I think it's going to get VERY ugly really soon. Our local's are going at it with the gloves off. It worries me that the politicians reach back so far to find ugly things about the others, then state how perfect they are, are christian, or something other that contridicts themselves......

2 1. Catch Obama getting counsel from Reverend Wright while cheating on his wife.2. Release his medical records (showing he's not gonna keel over) .

1. Catch Obama getting counsel from Reverend Wright while cheating on his wife.2. Release his medical records (showing he's not gonna keel over).

And....I'm sure there are a great many people who are saying they'll vote for Obama to show how non-racist and broad-minded they are, who will vote for McCain once they're in the voting booth, pushing the little electronic button, or however its done where they live.

I don't trust pre-election polls....especially in this election.....there is still a great deal of racism in this country and those people don't answer polls (a lot of them probably don't even have phones! ). In this election, the only poll I'll believe will be the final vote count.

And....I'm sure there are a great many people who are saying they'll vote for Obama to show how non-racist and broad-minded they are, who will vote for McCain once they're in the voting booth, pushing the little electronic button, or however its done where they live.

4 Yeah, OH, you're right (I was sort of going for the laugh). Diebold and "The Bradley Effect" are alive and well, as I've said in other databases. McCain is so not out of this race!

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Yeah, OH, you're right (I was sort of going for the laugh). Diebold and "The Bradley Effect" are alive and well, as I've said in other databases. McCain is so not out of this race!

I cant really gove you an answer,but what I can give you is a way to a solution, that is you have to find the anglde that you relate to or peaks your interest. A good paper is one that people get drawn into because it reaches them ln some way.As for me WW11 to me, I think of the holocaust and the effect it had on the survivors, their families and those who stood by and did nothing until it was too late.