Can CBO quantify the degree of uncertainly about its assumptions regarding the numbers and types of asbestos claims?

A cost estimate for a new and unique government program over 50 years is very uncertain. Based on our review of claims projections made for similar legislation considered in the 108th Congress (S. 1125) and future claims projections made for private bankruptcy trust funds, we expect the value of future claims likely to be presented to the proposed federal Asbestos Trust Fund would be between $120 billion and $150 billion, although it is possible that the value of claims could fall outside of that range.

Those figures do not include potential financing (interest) costs. Among the claims projections we have reviewed, CBO generally finds broad agreement on the magnitude and types of claims for malignant conditions likely to be received by the fund. We estimate that such claims would account for roughly two-thirds of the value of all claims likely to be made.

There is much less agreement, however, on the numbers and types of claims for nonmalignant conditions likely to be received by the ... more.

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