EDIT: Yes, I understand your point -- but here's my point, the swing is never "uniform." For there to be an upset with a "uniform" distribution, the LibDems would have to pick up at least 45% (or so). But the vote split isn't uniform, never has been, and probably never will be.
Labour have tended to dominate in the north and midlands, and the Tories in the south. There's really no polling data to suggest a uniform defection from both parties simultaneously. But if one were to take place, as I say, the LibDems would have to get a swing in the low to mid 40s to pull it off.
This would amount to approximately a 12-14 point variance -- which is a lot. Hope this clarifies. The "First Past The Post" system of plurality voting doesn't work like that.
During any general election the LibDems will garner about 33% of the vote; but that doesn't mean they end up with 33% of the seats. Each district has its own election, and each district vote is different. It does no good to talk about national vote totals, the only thing that matters is the number of seats awarded.
And for the LibDems to take power they'd require about 330 seats. Currently they have fewer than 70. Let me give you an example to show what I mean... The Uk is made up of 650 districts, with each district having it's own election.
Let's look at two districts. In District A, the vote breaks out like this... Labour = 40% Conservatives = 25% LibDems = 35%. Labour wins and picks up a seat.
----- District B Conservatives = 40% Labour = 25% LibDems = 35% Conservatives win and pick up a seat.
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