If your problem is that the default initial guesses, read the documentation curve_fit to find out how to specify them manually by giving it the p0 parameter. For instance, curve_fit(deriv, time, zn, p0=(12, 0.23)) if you want a=12 and b=0.23 be the initial guess.
I cant really gove you an answer,but what I can give you is a way to a solution, that is you have to find the anglde that you relate to or peaks your interest. A good paper is one that people get drawn into because it reaches them ln some way.As for me WW11 to me, I think of the holocaust and the effect it had on the survivors, their families and those who stood by and did nothing until it was too late.