Every probability calculation requires a numerator and a denominator. The fatal flaw in ALL probability calculations on either abiogenesis or evolution is that NOBODY has any idea of what the actual denominator should be. So, they make assumptions about what they "want" the denominator to be, in order to ensure that it's as large as possible, so that the calculated probability will be as low as possible.
A common assumption is that whatever we see today MUST HAVE first appeared that way, in final, complete, "perfect" form. Any possible instructive analogies from the history of known human technology & design are completely ignored--it's as if they look at a modern Rolex watch and assume it simply appeared out of thin air, rather than being a final, end result of thousands of years of conceptual & technological innovation going all the way back to simply following the sun's shadow cast by a stick stuck into the mud. Of course, such an assumption is ludicrously silly--everybody has at least a notion that watches are the result of a long period of "evolutionary" development.
There is no good reason to not think of biological evolution in a similar manner--the only difference is slower development and selection out of those "designs" that don't work as well is accomplished by differential rates of reproduction. But because of the tacit assumption of "first form = final form," without any evidence even suggesting that such an assumption is justified (and indeed much evidence indicating it's NOT), this biases any resulting probability calculation toward the lowest possible numbers. So, most such probability calculations are simply the result of numbers obtained via rectal self-retrieval--i.e.
Literally "fudging" the numbers. Cue rimshot... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CdVTCDd...
I cant really gove you an answer,but what I can give you is a way to a solution, that is you have to find the anglde that you relate to or peaks your interest. A good paper is one that people get drawn into because it reaches them ln some way.As for me WW11 to me, I think of the holocaust and the effect it had on the survivors, their families and those who stood by and did nothing until it was too late.