How does the NBER determine business cycle turning points?

The NBER a private nonprofit nonpartisan research organization, determines the official dates for business cycles. The NBER website (nber.org/) describes the key phases of the business cycle as follows: A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, that lasts more than a few months and is visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough.

Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades. The NBER's researchers have selected turning points for over 30 business cycles, beginning in the mid-1800s.

Data on these official business cycle turning points and dates are available from the NBER website at nber.org/cycles.html. How do NBER recessions differ from the common ... more.

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