How reliable are the Census Bureau's estimates?

See OMB's formal review of the Bureau's intercensal estimates program. The bottom line: basically okay, but they have had problems with the international migration component, which has meant (in the lates 1990's, at least) some significant underestimating of the hispanic population in some areas. Population estimates for places (cities) employ a methodology that assumes a constant vacancy rate and persons per unit.

This leads to consistent overestimating of small places in rural areas which typically are losing population because of an aging-in-place population that leads to an increase in vacant units and fewer persons per household. Watch out for successfully challenged estimates. The Bureau has a challenge process that allows jurisdictions to submit evidence showing why the Bureau's estimate may be wrong.

Usually these challenges get resolved in the spring or summer of the year in which the estimates are published. But no publications issued in that calendar year reflect the ... more.

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