How would a frequentist answer this problem? How would a Bayesian answer?

Re the royal statistician. The King? S spies have captured an enemy?

S invention for manufacturing orange and green marbles. The manual says the machine produces one marble per day, and the color is determined at random. The manual states that a factory preset determines the average fraction of orange marbles that the machine will produce.

The spies did not find any evidence to indicate the value of the factory preset. The nation? S GNMO (Gross National Marble Output) is critical to national security, so the King has asked you to provide a daily estimate of the factory preset and the uncertainty of the estimate.

The first report is due immediately, before the produces any marbles. What do you tell the King? After 1 day, the machine produces an orange marble.

What do you tell the King? The next day another orange marble is produced. What do you tell the King?

What do you report on day 1000, by which time the sample consists of 1000 orange marbles and 0 green marbles? Asked by dryguy 59 months ago Similar questions: frequentist answer problem Bayesian Science > Math.

Similar questions: frequentist answer problem Bayesian.

One lost his marbles The Bayesian: On day 1 he’d expect (prehaps randomly) it will spit out an orange marble. S expectation would be confirmed, and he’d continue with it. Eventually the Bayesian would use Occam’s Razor to cut the thing open and discover that there is no factory preset - and it can, in fact, only produce orange marbles.

The Frequentist was executed on day one when he said, "I can’t do any predictions until I have some sample data - can you give me a year to observe the machine’s output? ". Sources: Traumatic flashbacks from grad school stat courses CarpeNoctem's Recommendations The Lady Tasting Tea: How Statistics Revolutionized Science in the Twentieth Century Amazon List Price: $16.00 Used from: $9.25 Average Customer Rating: 4.0 out of 5 (based on 39 reviews) .

Ooh.. probability :) OK, I hope I remember how to do this:On the first day your estimate would have to be 0.5 with an uncertainty of 0.5From the second day onwards your estimate should be 1, and the uncertainty decreases as time goes on:On the second day the uncertainty would be 0.5 (since if you're wrong the GNMO is 0.5 and you estimated 1.0). On the third day it's 1/3On the 4th day it's 1/4...On the 1000th day you still estimate 1, and the uncertainty is as small as 0.001. BTW: I'm not sure if this means I'm a frequentist or a Bayesian - there's a limit to how much statistics one can remember...

1 Karpenoctem, regarding your answer "One lost his marbles":Sometimes a funny answer is better than the right one. I vote for you :) .

Karpenoctem, regarding your answer "One lost his marbles":Sometimes a funny answer is better than the right one. I vote for you :).

2 I agree with kermit11. "Rate this answer" needs a new category: "No really, what's the answer? ".

I agree with kermit11. "Rate this answer" needs a new category: "No really, what's the answer? ".

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I cant really gove you an answer,but what I can give you is a way to a solution, that is you have to find the anglde that you relate to or peaks your interest. A good paper is one that people get drawn into because it reaches them ln some way.As for me WW11 to me, I think of the holocaust and the effect it had on the survivors, their families and those who stood by and did nothing until it was too late.