Conventional wisdom says Obama. (This is the same "wisdom" that told you Pawlenty was going to be Romney's main competition). HOWEVER, I don't think that's the case.
It would be close, but Paul would squeeze it out. Why? The GOP, REGARDLESS of what they are saying now, WILL NOT vote for Obama again.
It seems like that's ultimately what they would rather have, but voting Democrat makes them feel dirty. So Paul would get those votes. Paul would also get anti-war Democrats, anybody opposed to the war on drugs, the patriot act, the occupation of Afghanistan etc. And generally ANYBODY fed up with the status quo (two faced corrupt politicians).
He's old. But he's honest. EDIT: Also, Rasmussen polls are essentially useless around this time.
I'm more concerned with left leaning polls (ie PPP) that show Ron Paul CONSISTENTLY beating Obama by about 10 points with independents.
Obama would win. Ron Paul has a very loyal cadre of fans but most Americans think he's just kooky. Anyway the question is entirely academic since the Republican leaders will never allow him to get the nomination.
I cant really gove you an answer,but what I can give you is a way to a solution, that is you have to find the anglde that you relate to or peaks your interest. A good paper is one that people get drawn into because it reaches them ln some way.As for me WW11 to me, I think of the holocaust and the effect it had on the survivors, their families and those who stood by and did nothing until it was too late.