What is the purpose of the Wind Probability products?

Wind probability products are intended to convey the likelihood of significant winds occurring at specific locations. The products are currently under development and are only being created for the Northwestern Pacific basin. JTWC welcomes comments from its customers concerning the format and utility of the wind probability products.

Back to top Q: What is depicted on the Wind Probability Graphics? A: Wind probability graphics show the cumulative probability (from Tau 00 through the forecast time) that max sustained surface wind speeds will equal or exceed the given threshold (34-, 50-, or 64-kt) at the locations on the map. Back to top Q: How are the Wind Probabilities generated?

A: Centered on the latest JTWC forecast, 1000 plausible alternate forecasts are created, each with a different evolution of track, intensity, and size. The track and intensity variations are determined by random sampling of historical track and intensity errors over the past 5 years. Size variations are ... more.

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