What was the impact of altering the seasonal adjustment option (additive outlier adjustment) for the July 2005 data month?

The impacted industry group showed an increase from June. If the July value had been treated as typical, the program would have taken part of the increase to be a seasonal effect and would have adjusted the data in a way that would have brought the adjusted percent change from June to July closer to zero. The altered option we used determined the increase in this combined NAICS industry group to be out of the ordinary.

As a result, the June to July percent change in the adjusted value was left further from zero. More.

All of the kinds of business that the alteration impacted showed a decline from August. For these kinds of business, if the September values had been treated as typical, the program would have taken part of the decline to be a seasonal effect and would have adjusted the data in a way that would have brought the adjusted percent change from August to September closer to zero. The altered option we used determined the declines in these kinds of business to be out of the ordinary.

As a result, the August to September percent change in the adjusted value was left further from zero. More.

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