Nils Bohr once said that making predictions is very difficult, especially when it's about the future. I suspect that the answer cannot be a simple date or even year or decade. There are many factors that will affect the answer.1.
What is the rate at which the US government continues to increase its debt? 2. What is the expected rate of growth of governmental income (i.e.
Taxes, which depend on the level of economic activity, tax levels, etc. )?3. What is the rate at which the US will need to import from the outside world?4. What is the rate at which program costs such as Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, etc. Grow?Etc.Etc.
Etc. However, to give a vastly over-simplified guesstimate, let's throw some numbers around. The national debt is currently somewhere around $12 trillion.
The interest on that is somewhere around 4% per annum. Thus, the annual interest is on the order of $480 billion per year. The federal budget is about 6 times that number.
Thus, in terms of a family, if the total income is about $90,000 a year, this would be the equivalent of having to pay interest payments of about $15,000/year or $1250/month. Taking this example, the family could probably afford to increase their debt payment level by about a factor of 2 before getting into the sort of problem that leads to bankruptcy. If the federal deficit continues at a rate of $1 trillion/year, that would be in about a dozen years.
However, since the federal government is not a family, the factor may be more or less than that doubling, and the rate of deficit is not likely to continue anywhere near $1 trillion/year.
I cant really gove you an answer,but what I can give you is a way to a solution, that is you have to find the anglde that you relate to or peaks your interest. A good paper is one that people get drawn into because it reaches them ln some way.As for me WW11 to me, I think of the holocaust and the effect it had on the survivors, their families and those who stood by and did nothing until it was too late.