It's a credibility thing.. Dropping Greece would state that: 1. Countries actually CAN leave the EU. So far, everyone states that this is simply impossible, as there is no 'get out free 'procedure.
Of course, if they decide Greece should leave the EU, they'll find a way, but apparently they don't want that. 2. They made a huge mistake by letting Greece enter the EU in the first place.
There was quire some opposition to Greece in the EU, but certain members want the EU as big as possible, and also see Greece as the bridge to the Middle East, which is good for commerce! 3. Opposition to other potential EU nations will increase.
Many Eastern European countries are dying to enter the EU, as is Turkey. If Greece is cast out, those who oppose the entry of Turkey and the Eastern European countries will gain momentum, and will quite possibly be succesful in blocking those countries. 4.
Other nations may also decide (or be forced to) to leave the EU. Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland are all lining up to be the next 'Greece'. If they are also cast out of the EU, there will effectively be no more EU left.
All in all: Saving Greece is basically all about saving the EU itself. While many Europeans would rather see the EU ended today than tomorrow, politicians have much to loose in this matter: The EU is generally seen as the 'next job' for many national politicians. This leads to a quite sobering conclusion: They can't drop Greece, as they would risk their own future jobs!
Amazing, huh?
Quoting from the Daily Reckoning: And now over to Bill Bonner from Baltimore, Maryland... The financial press is enjoying itself. With words! One headline says the atmosphere is "toxic."
Another warns of "contagion. " "Politicians fiddle while Athens burns," says The Wall Street Journal. They all agree: Europe is going to Hell...just as soon as it can find a handcart!
But you remember our comments yesterday? Got a catastrophe? Great!
The authorities have tried to avoid disaster. They've done a good job of it. That is, they've avoided small disasters.
And they've laid the foundation for a big one. So, bring it on! According to one press report, "Europe is waiting for its Lehman moment."
Get it? It's that moment when all Hell seems to break loose in the financial markets - like September '08, after Lehman Bros went broke. Bloomberg: The euro lost more than 2 percent against the dollar in the past two days and the cost of protecting corporate bonds soared to the highest level since January, with credit-default swaps anticipating about a 78 percent chance that Greece won't pay its debts.
Equities declined around the world, while a measure of fear in fixed-income markets jumped the most since November. On the streets of Athens, riot police armed with clubs swing at protesters, also armed with clubs. "Greece was plunged into political turmoil..." began the report in The Financial Times.
But what is really going on? Greece, a small country with a small GDP and no oil...whose strategic export is olives...and whose last real military victory was the Battle of Jhelum in 326 BC, in which Alexander the Great defeated an Indian Rajah named Porus. But Greece is also as deep in debt as the US.
But unlike the US, lenders don't want to lend Greece money. They've read the history books. They know what happens when you lend Greeks money.
You don't get it back. On the other hand, they also know that the European Central Bank and the financial authorities worldwide are afraid of a "Lehman moment. " They fear disaster.
They hate catastrophes. They think their job descriptions include avoiding calamities of all sorts. Investors don't know quite what to think.
The danger is high. But there are rewards too. Greek debt with a 3-year maturity is yielding 28%.
If the authorities pull off another bailout, speculators stand to make a lot of money on the long side of Greek debt. But as we said earlier, it is because officials are so good at avoiding calamities that we find ourselves confronted with so many of them now. If they'd let Greece go broke 3 years ago, the problem would be behind us instead of in front of us.
Avoiding disasters hasn't worked. At least, not avoiding debt disasters. No matter what tricks the authorities do - monetary, fiscal, or unconventional - the debt is still there.
And since all those tricks cost money...it gets bigger and bigger. So how about this: Give disaster a chance to show its stuff. Let calamity have a go at the problem.
Let's all put our hands together and welcome catastrophe. It's coming, whether we like it or not. So why not like it?
Look, who really cares if a few big banks go broke? Who cares if Greece, Portugal and Spain - if it comes to that - are forced out of the EU? Who cares if the bankers don't get their bonuses...or the speculators don't get their pay-offs...or pompous officials don't get to claim they 'saved the world economy'?
Not us. Of course, we don't really know what would happen if disaster were allowed to settle up things on its own. If the EU doesn't come through with another bailout, Greek banks - including its central bank - will be insolvent.
And the European Central Bank may be insolvent too. It has an outstanding loan for $49 billion to Greece. It has a lot of other debt on its books too - from Spain, Portugal and Ireland.
What that debt is worth today, you can find out by looking in the financial pages. What it will be worth after Greece defaults is unknown...but surely a lot less. And when the losses are toted up, they are likely to be more than the ECB's capital.
Then, the scheisse will really hit the fan. What will happen? No one does.
But we want to find out. And more thoughts... Here's the report from The Telegraph in London: EU commissioners have a "profound sense of foreboding" about Greece and the future of the eurozone, a leaked account of a meeting has suggested. The account, seen by BBC News, said this was in reaction to the "damning failure" of eurozone ministers to agree a new bail-out for Greece last night.It was written by an official who attended Wednesday's gathering of commissioners in Brussels.
The author warned that the markets would now "smell blood". Regards, Bill Bonner For Daily Reckoning Australia.
I cant really gove you an answer,but what I can give you is a way to a solution, that is you have to find the anglde that you relate to or peaks your interest. A good paper is one that people get drawn into because it reaches them ln some way.As for me WW11 to me, I think of the holocaust and the effect it had on the survivors, their families and those who stood by and did nothing until it was too late.