Democratic Delegate Math and Political Prognostication…a fun way for political junkies to kill time…?

Democratic Delegate Math and Political Prognostication…a fun way for political junkies to kill time… I have gone through the delegate counts and the polling trends for each state (where available) and have predicted how many delegates I think each Democrat will end up with out of tomorrow’s contests. Anyone else care to make their predictions? Here are my best guesstimates, can't wait to see how close I come and if anyone here can come closer!

Alabama 39/29 ObamaAlaska 10/8 ObamaAmerican Samoa 8/5 ObamaArizona 39/297 ClintonArkansas 29/298 ClintonCalifornia 234/207 ObamaColorado 49/297 ObamaConnecticut 39/293 ClintonDeleware 9/298 ClintonDems Abroad 9/293 ObamaGeorgia 69/298 ObamaIdaho 14/9 ObamaIllinois 120/65 ObamaKansas 29/297 ObamaMassachussets 69/298 ClintonMinnesota 59/299 ObamaMissouri 49/2931 ObamaNew Jersey 69/298 ClintonNew Mexico 29/293 ObamaNew York 157/123 ClintonNorth Dakota 9/297 ObamaOklahoma 29/298 ClintonTennessee 49/299 ClintonUtah 19/299 ObamaTotal delegates 2,096, 1,096 to Obama, 1,000 to Clinton. Asked by dalepetrie_is_gone 47 months ago Similar questions: Democratic Delegate Math Political Prognostication…a fun political junkies kill time… Politics & Law > Politics.

Similar questions: Democratic Delegate Math Political Prognostication…a fun political junkies kill time….

A bold prediction, but recent polls do seem to be backing you up. Also, &@$^ing superdelegates.

New York will be tough because they declare all of theirs until the convention, but it will be interesting. And by the way...ANYONE who takes the time to make a serious prediction (i.e. You don't just call every race significantly for one candidate or the other), whether you go to pledged or all delegates, I'll give you a 5 if I think you put in the effort, even if I don't agree with your outcome.

Cow - I agree, I'm more confident if you back this to percentages and parse it out to the pledged #'s, but for simplicity's sake I figured I'd go w/ the eventual total outcome on the premise that within probably a week of the contest, any currently uncommited superdelegates will gravitate one way or the other. If I'm within 10% either way I've done well. Yes, everything seems to be breaking Obama's way, even CA, which I did call for him and MA which I did not.

New York will be tough because they declare all of theirs until the convention, but it will be interesting. And by the way...ANYONE who takes the time to make a serious prediction (i.e. You don't just call every race significantly for one candidate or the other), whether you go to pledged or all delegates, I'll give you a 5 if I think you put in the effort, even if I don't agree with your outcome.

4 Yeah, frankly I'm stunned how strongly the polls have swung to Obama. I'm really not sure hwo much I can trust them on it, but as an Obama supporter, maybe I should just shut up and be happy.

Yeah, frankly I'm stunned how strongly the polls have swung to Obama. I'm really not sure hwo much I can trust them on it, but as an Obama supporter, maybe I should just shut up and be happy.

5 Fascinating question. I wish I had time to put in the effort to do the analysis myself. Bravo.

Fascinating question. I wish I had time to put in the effort to do the analysis myself. Bravo.

" "Ok political junkies - if you watched the New Hampshire debate tonight....." "Emotions are running high this political season. You are voting Democratic and your significant other is voting" "Political junkies! Why are you a political junkie?

Read details before answering, please..." "Can a sophisticated democratic state function without large political parties?" "can somebody help me with this political math? " "Would it make good political sense for Obama and Clinton to be the Democratic ticket? " "For all you political junkies.Do you think you will burn out before November election day?

Aren't you getting tired? " "Who is up for some "Political Humor"? Thats as far as I go discussing "Politics" I've seen how dangerous it can be LOL.." "R there political junkies amomg us who want to see this?

http://link.email.washingtonpost.com/r/E5QODK/WLL7JB/VLJ4Y1/Z.

Ok political junkies - if you watched the New Hampshire debate tonight.....

Emotions are running high this political season. You are voting Democratic and your significant other is voting.

Political junkies! Why are you a political junkie? Read details before answering, please...

For all you political junkies. Do you think you will burn out before November election day? Aren't you getting tired?

Thats as far as I go discussing "Politics" I've seen how dangerous it can be LOL..

I cant really gove you an answer,but what I can give you is a way to a solution, that is you have to find the anglde that you relate to or peaks your interest. A good paper is one that people get drawn into because it reaches them ln some way.As for me WW11 to me, I think of the holocaust and the effect it had on the survivors, their families and those who stood by and did nothing until it was too late.