If the D is in a subject requirement class, then you MUST at least retake the course with a C or better. You can be rejected for a single missing subject requirement. But if the D is in a non-required subject, then it matters less.
If the D is in a prerequisite for a particular impacted major at the UC school, then you can also be rejected by the department of the major. Every app is evaluated for general university admissions requirements as well as by the department for a declared major. Impacted majors can have much more stringent requirements than needed for general admission, particularly for engineering or special programs with limited enrollment.
Usually you can correct one D while you're still in HS. You'll always have a second chance to get into the UC of your choice by attending a community college and completing the transfer requirements.
Depends on your other grades. If they are mostly B's an C's then your chances are slightly slimmer. If this D is really an outlier, then I wouldn't worry about it.
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