How do I evaluate the effectiveness of an algorithm that predicts probabilities?

A chi-square test is a widely used distribution fitness test.

I am not sure that I understand your question, so this answer may not be useful to you.

I cant really gove you an answer,but what I can give you is a way to a solution, that is you have to find the anglde that you relate to or peaks your interest. A good paper is one that people get drawn into because it reaches them ln some way.As for me WW11 to me, I think of the holocaust and the effect it had on the survivors, their families and those who stood by and did nothing until it was too late.