The Stock market is a leading indicator. It usually leads the economy by six to nine months. Employment is a lagging indicator.
The economy will turn up several months before large companies start hiring. This is what I look at. The stock market indicates that things are maybe already or maybe about to get better.
Here what convinces me. Last fall, I could drive to any restaurant within 30 miles at 6:00 PM on any day of the week, including Friday and Saturday. There would be no traffic for the drive and when I got there, the restaurant would be two thirds empty.
Now, traffic is significantly increased seven days a week and the restaurants are full on Friday and Saturday. They are still light during the week but last weekend I had to wait 30 minutes for a table on Saturday night. Note that if you drive to work, there is no better indicator of current economic activity than the level of traffic you observe during the rush.
The malls are still virtually empty so we still have a long way to go but we have begun the journey.
Personally I think that the economy is showing signs of improvement. The Dow Jones is at 8300. I realize that it's not what it was a year ago, but it is a 20% improvement over the last couple of months.
That is a huge upswing. I think people are spending again, but I think they aren't being as irrational as they were before the economic downturn. This is all just my personal opinion though.
I cant really gove you an answer,but what I can give you is a way to a solution, that is you have to find the anglde that you relate to or peaks your interest. A good paper is one that people get drawn into because it reaches them ln some way.As for me WW11 to me, I think of the holocaust and the effect it had on the survivors, their families and those who stood by and did nothing until it was too late.