Negative or Positive Feedback loop?

Positive feedbacks are rare in nature. If the earth's climate was in that delicate of a balance where 100ppm can throw the climate into a runaway warming mode, then this would have already happened. Imagine a ball in the middle of a round bowl.

If you push the ball a little it wants to roll back to the center. That is a stable system. The feedback is negative.

The harder you push up the sides of the bowl, the harder the ball tries to get back to the center. Now turn the round bowl upside down and carefully balance the ball on top. Now only a small touch sets the ball in motion.

It will pick up speed and roll off and away. That is an unstable system. The feedback is positive.

Do you really think our climate has been on the precipice of collapse all this time and only needs a few ppm of CO2 to send it "rolling off the bowl"?

All climate change requires positive feedbacks. In natural climate change, the coming and going of ice ages have required feedback to amplify. The Milankovitch Cycle or plate techtronics that initiated past climate change were nowhere near powerful enough on their own to cause the dramatic changes.

In past, natural climate change, CO2 has been a primary feedback as the oceans naturally throw off CO2 as they warm. The albedo effects of growing or diminishing ice cover has also been a primary feedback in both the coming and going of ice ages. Among the positive feedbacks that will amplify global warming are the albedo effect (as ice surface diminishes, less energy is reflected by the white ice and more is absorbed by the exposed dark water), the release of vast stores of methane which is stored in the frozen tundra (methane is a stronger greenhouse gas), increased water vapor in the atmosphere due to increased evaporation (water vapor is also more powerful as a greenhouse gas than is CO2), a poleward shift of forested areas reducing the reflective powers of the surface, more fires which put more CO2 into the air, warming of the ocean reduces it's ability to absorb CO2.

There are a few expected negative feedbacks. Clouds have been debated and it seems the may be either a positive or negative feedback. It's theorized that more CO2 can help plants, though it is not clear whether other changes will harm overall plant growth; more plants will use more CO2.

Increased desertification and land degradation would cause more soil to be blown into the atmosphere which would have a cooling, dimming effect. Of all these, the greatest feedback will likely be the increase of methane in the atmosphere as that has always been a major component of global climate change.

I cant really gove you an answer,but what I can give you is a way to a solution, that is you have to find the anglde that you relate to or peaks your interest. A good paper is one that people get drawn into because it reaches them ln some way.As for me WW11 to me, I think of the holocaust and the effect it had on the survivors, their families and those who stood by and did nothing until it was too late.

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