I'm going with Donald Trump in April. The ones with more political experience don't want to be first because the one who is first gets the most scrutiny. I think you'll see a flood of them in late May and early June with some of the top contenders waiting until around August.
I think Palin will campaign hard as though she is running, but never announce and then decide to back someone else shortly before the filing deadlines begin. She's making too much money with very little responsibility to give that up. She doesn't want to run and lose and she really doesn't want to run and win.
The June candidates are ones to watch. They're people who are seeking the scrutiny because they lack the notoriety. The one from that group that emerges as the strongest will become the anti-whoever candidate and will be poised to take over the lead when the initial front-runner inevitably implodes.
As for the nomination winner, my money's on Newt Gingrich. I think Palin will endorse him late, perhaps shortly before South Carolina, because she hasn't gotten along well with Huckabee, who actually is the most similar viable candidate to her political views, and many of the mainstream Republicans will see him as viable because he is a former House Speaker with significant political skill. I think that will give him a combination of some votes that could otherwise go to Romney and some that could otherwise go to Huckabee, much of Palin's supporters, and the also rans wouldn't oppose him (except the Ron Paul supporters).
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