Does the Phillips curve always slope downwards?

Haldane and Quah begin by showing that 50 years of postwar U.K. data do--at first glance--exhibit a negative relationship between unemployment and inflation, much as Phillips found in data through 1957. However, they then demonstrate that this relationship conceals two quite different relationships that held during the pre-1980 and post-1980 subperiods. Before 1980, the unemployment rate moved relatively little and was generally below 4%, while the inflation rate was fairly volatile and appears to have been centered around 10%.

A plot of inflation against unemployment over that period would produce a vertical Phillips curve. After 1980, unemployment moved around more, ranging between 4% and 12%, while inflation varied less than the prior period, remaining below 10% most of the time. Here, the Phillips curve appears horizontal.

Note that unemployment is higher on average while inflation is lower in the second subsample than in the first, which is why we get an apparently downward- ... more.

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