What scenario has to occur for McCain/Palin to win 270 electoral college votes given current poll numbers?

People in general and the media are stuck on the overall polls, but as we all know, that is not what counts in electing our President. What states that are now either battleground states or weak Obama leaning states does McCain need to turn around to pull off a victory in the Electoral College? Asked by HankMoody 38 months ago Similar questions: scenario occur McCain Palin win 270 electoral college votes current poll numbers Politics & Law > Politics.

Similar questions: scenario occur McCain Palin win 270 electoral college votes current poll numbers.

Assuming polls are not way too wrong, McCain needs a miracle. First of all, one single poll doesn’t show much. The best way of looking at the race is if we look at several polls and try to put together all the data.

Because the more data we have, presumably, we should be able to draw better conclusions. FiveThirtyEight. Com does exactly what I said.

They have a complicated methodology for calculating the chance of Obama wining the election. What they do is to assign a "weight" to any poll. This is based on the following 3 factors: 1) The poll’s past behavior 2) The recentness of the poll 3) Its sample size What they have now is that Obama has around 96% chance of wining the election.

This means that from 10,000 simulations that they ran yesterday, Obama has won the race in more than 96% of the times. They also assume some other factors like demographics of a state and its past behavior but polls have much more weight than a state past voting behavior. For the sake of argument assume that Obama wins all Kerry States plus Iowa.In fact Obama leads McCain in all of those states by at least 10%, except for PA, MN, and NH.

He leads McCain by 9.5% in MN. In PA Obama has a 9% lead. And in NH, Obama has a 7.4% lead according to 538.com.

Since Kerry won 252 EV’s in 2004, and Iowa has 7 EV’s this would be a total of 259 EV’s for Obama. Obama needs 11 more EV’s to become the next President of the US. The following states are up for grab: FL(27), VA(13), NC(15), OH(20), IN(11), MO(11), CO(9), NM(5), and NV(5).

The numbers inside brackets show the number of EV’s for each states. So, McCain HAS TO win FL, NC, VA, OH, IN, and MO. From the remaining 3 states of NM, NV and CO, he can afford to lose 2 of them, but if he loses CO he should win BOTH states of NV and NM.

Obviously this is considering polls are not way too wrong. Also check out my Post #64 on this DB. Early votes show pretty good results for Obama.

http://askville.amazon.com/latest-AP-poll-presidential-election-suddenly-close-real/DiscussionBoard.do?requestId=20550596&page=7 Because of the above statistics, McCain doesn’t have much chance unless he tries to turn one of the big Kerry states red. That is why he is running hard to turn Pennsylvania red. However recent polls show very little change in the race in PA and we can still assume that PA is very well in Obama's column.

IF (and that is a BIG if) McCain can turn PA red, he has a fairly good chance. Otherwise Obama is the next President! Recent state polls show that the race is becoming close in states like Georgia and even Arizona, his home state!

Apparently he is in real trouble.

1 I don't think any type of favorable scenario exists that can save the McCain/Palin dynamic duo. It might be a matter of too little too late. It's only 6 days out from election day and it seems the closer we get, the more ugly and divisive the campaigns are and the information that gets disseminated about the two candidates.

I don't think any type of favorable scenario exists that can save the McCain/Palin dynamic duo. It might be a matter of too little too late. It's only 6 days out from election day and it seems the closer we get, the more ugly and divisive the campaigns are and the information that gets disseminated about the two candidates.

2 Hank- You might be interested in having a look at my Post #74 from the following DB:askville.amazon.com/latest-AP-poll-presi... .

Hank- You might be interested in having a look at my Post #74 from the following DB:askville.amazon.com/latest-AP-poll-presi....

3 For the polls to be wrong, obviously. Polls are not votes.

For the polls to be wrong, obviously. Polls are not votes.

Replied to post #2: 4 That would be post 64 ;-)Geeze I can believe the resident "numbers guy" posted a wrong number LOL .

That would be post 64 ;-)Geeze I can believe the resident "numbers guy" posted a wrong number LOL.

I cant really gove you an answer,but what I can give you is a way to a solution, that is you have to find the anglde that you relate to or peaks your interest. A good paper is one that people get drawn into because it reaches them ln some way.As for me WW11 to me, I think of the holocaust and the effect it had on the survivors, their families and those who stood by and did nothing until it was too late.