Who *will* win the best actor Oscar for 2009? Who *should* win the Best Actor Oscar for 2009? - Featured?

Will* win - Sean Penn, Milk *should* win - Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler Penn’s win at the Producer’s Guild Awards gives him a grand total of 17 Best Actor awards this season, which is one more than Rourke. Although that may seem like a narrow margin, the SAG is a better predictor of the Oscar than the Golden Globe. Actors make up a huge voting block of the Academy, and “Milk” is an issue-driven movie with a lot of goodwill behind it.

I think Mickey Rourke SHOULD and WILL win. I enjoyed The Wrestler so much more than I thought I would, and that's largely because of his performance. Sean Penn would be a very close second, awesome job.

If Brad Pitt wins I'll be bummed. He's a good actor, but not in this film.

I think that Sean Penn is going to win. He's playing someone in a biopic. That's a virtual guarantee for an Oscar lately.

The same goes for Best Actress, but that's not part of this question. 2002: Adrian Brody for playing Wladyslaw Szpilman 2003: No nominee playing a real person 2004: Jamie Foxx for playing Ray Charles 2005: Philip Seymour Hoffman for playing Truman Capote 2006: Forest Whitaker for playing Idi Amin 2007: no nominee playing a real person Who should win it? Mickey Rourke.

He may be able to pull it off because of his age and his recent resurgence since playing Marv in Sin City, but I think the Acadamy's obsession over biopics is going to keep him from that golden statuette. EDIT: And technically, these are the Academy Awards for 2008, not 2009.

The Academy membership is still filled with a lot of "old Hollywood". I am guessing Sean Penn will win, but maybe Mickey Rourke should win. Actors don't take Brad Pitt serious as a dramatic actor, imo.

I'd be surprised if Pitt won. A lot of people think Bencio del Toro was robbed by not even being nominated for Che (and instead the heavy makeup dependent Pitt role was nominated. ) The outside "long shot" is Frank Langella, for Frost/Nixon.

Cochese forgot to mention if performances based on real life characters have a slight edge, then you would have to think Langella might also be a good bet. This is the race of the year (for the Academy). They were all good performances.

I would be the most disappointed if Pitt won. And I think it's crummy that Heath ledger was nominated as a Supporting Actor for Dark Knight. Heath was the reason to see the film.(BrokeBack Mountain was robbed..).

What's really curious about "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" is that most Oscar pundits give the lead star of the film with the most nominations virtually no hope of winning best actor. Among the five contenders in that category, Brad Pitt is usually ranked fourth or fifth by prognosticators. Why?

Most likely it's punishment for his good looks. Look at other top male stars who haven't won Oscars despite working in Hollywood for years: Tom Cruise, Johnny Depp, Leonardo DiCaprio, Richard Gere. They're all heartthrobs — just like previous matinee stars who got snubbed in years past: James Dean, Steve McQueen, Tyrone Power and Robert Taylor.

Now consider the parade of young lovelies who dominated the actress awards in recent years. Best-actress champs over the last decade, for example, include Julia Roberts, Halle Berry, Nicole Kidman, Charlize Theron and Reese Witherspoon. Read more about that phenomenon in Gold Derby's separate blog piece about the Babe Factor.

The male counterpart to that female factor is the Slap the Stud Syndrome. While a few handsome male stars have managed to win now and then in the past, most have been denied. There's a clear pattern of it.

Consider the case of Tom Cruise, who lost the 1989 best actor Oscar to Daniel Day-Lewis. Both men played wheelchair-bound real-life heroes in "Born on the Fourth of July" and "My Left Foot," respectively. Cruise had won the Golden Globe while Day-Lewis had taken most of the critics prizes.

When the British born Day-Lewis prevailed over the all-American Cruise many Oscarologists attributed this to another instance of the Slap the Stud Syndrome. The theory goes that many of the academy voters are geezer guys who love the younger fillies but resent the handsome bucks. Their message to these Hollywood heartthrobs: "You already have it all –- fame, fortune and females aplenty.So, sorry pal, no Oscar for you, just yet.

" However, just like the pretty women who de-glamorize themselves (Charlize Theron, "Monster"; Nicole Kidman, "The Hours") to win an Oscar so too can the handsome hunks who pack on a few pounds, a la George Clooney in 2005's "Syriana. " Last year, Javier Bardem was the hunk du jour whose unflattering Buster Brown bowl cut in "No Country for Old Men" won him the supporting actor Oscar.

While Tom Cruise lost his 1996 best actor bid for "Jerry Maguire" to respected stage star Geoffrey Rush ("Shine"), he lost the 1999 supporting actor race when nomm'd for "Magnolia" to one-time stud Michael Caine ("The Cider House Rules").

Caine did not win his first three best actor races and only won his first supporting Oscar ("Hannah and Her Sisters," 1986) when he was on other side of 50. Al Pacino was 52 when nomination No.7 for "Scent of a Woman" turned out to be the lucky one in 1992. However, by the time Oscar voters finally rewarded Paul Newman, he didn't care anymore.

Even though he was widely favored to win best actor for the 1986 film, "The Color of Money," the 62-year-old actor skipped the ceremony. At that point he'd lost seven times and was tied with Richard Burton and Peter O'Toole as Oscar's biggest loser. Disgusted by the whole game, Newman told the Associated Press that his pursuit of the statuette had been "like chasing a beautiful woman for 80 years.

Finally, she relents and you say, 'I am terribly sorry. I'm tired.' " And while there are the usual exceptions to the rule — both Clark Gable ("It Happened One Night," 1934) and Marlon Brando ("On the Waterfront," 1954) won Oscars at the height of their careers — many more leading men have been slapped through the years, never winning Oscars for acting: Warren Beatty (four lead nominations) Charles Boyer (four lead nominations) Montgomery Clift (three lead and one supporting nominations) James Dean (two lead nominations) Leonardo DiCaprio (two lead and one supporting nominations) Kirk Douglas (three lead nominations) Clint Eastwood (two lead nominations) Albert Finney (four lead and one supporting nominations) Peter Fonda (one lead nomination) Harrison Ford (one lead nomination) Cary Grant (two lead nominations) Rock Hudson (one lead nomination) Jude Law (two lead nominations) Marcello Mastroianni (three lead nominations) Steve McQueen (one lead nomination) Robert Mitchum (one supporting nomination) Nick Nolte (two lead nominations) Robert Redford (one lead nomination) Burt Reynolds (one supporting nomination) Will Smith (two lead nominations) John Travolta (two lead nominations). Also check out: http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/story?section=news/entertainment/oscars&id=6668357 http://www.denverpost.com/entertainment/ci_11694794 http://oscars.movies.yahoo.com/news/165-oscar-voters-wrestle-with-best-actor-choice-reuters Incidentally, Pitt and Penn are coming together for “Tree of Life"!

Will win, Mickey Rourke - Should Win, Sean Penn.

I think Brad Pitt will win. Heath Ledger should have won (whether he was dead or not). I think what happened with that was everyone though Heath was a shoo in so not as many people voted for him then wanted to.

I think Mickey Rourke "will" and "should" win. He deserves it.

I think Mickey Rourke SHOULD win but I think that Brad Pitt will win. :( Brad's performance was good and that had a lot to do with the Director of Curious Case Of BB(I believe he also directed Fight Club IIRC). The interesting thing about Mickey Rourke is that his character in the Wrestler was almost a metaphor of his real life boxing experience after he quit acting in the 90s.

I think Mickey Rourke *will* win - its a cinderally story with personal touches and all. I think Sean Penn *should* win - he played a character that he is not, so convincingly well! Good research... I will be pleasantly surprised if Sean wins.

Additionally, not part of this question, if in a slim chance that Brad Pitt wins, I will be extremely disappointed.

I think Mickey Rourke should win. S performance was touching - I really felt for his character. I think Brad Pitt will win.

Though, it was more special effects than Brad Pitt actually acting IMO.

I think Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button has doen a fab job ... he should win.

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler will win Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler should win, however Frank Langella was a close sec. Every one this year was very good.

I believe Mickey Rourke will win for "The Wrestler. " Age and comebacks make for great Oscar stories. I'd kind of like Sean Penn to win for "Milk".

He's already won before for "Mystic River", so I think he'll be edged out.

Sean Penn Should win, by far. Mickey Rourke is strongly overrated, because of his 'misfortune'.

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler will win this one. He's also been in Stormbreaker.

Nate Silver (the man behind FiveThirtyEight. Com) predicts that Mickey Rourke will win with 71.1% certainty. Sean Penn is in second with a 19% certainty.

I imagine that the Oscars are less predictable than the Presidential election, but that's a pretty clear favorite. As for who should win... I personally think Rouke's performance was one of the best I have ever seen. But I would have no problem with Penn winning.

They others would be a disappointment in my book.

Mickey rourke will win the oscars this time I guess and for others sean penn deserves tp be won lets see whats luck got for him brad pitt I don't think so he will win, but im his fan so im rooting for him.

I'm saying it again even though it's already been said. I can't believe I've been beat again. Brad Pitt will win.

Because it's won all the other award shows. I personally didn't care for that movie. Mickey Rourke should win.

And for best supporting actress Marisa Tomei should win also.

Will win - * Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler Should win - * Sean Penn, Milk Hollywood loves a comeback. It also doesn’t hurt that Mr. Rourke is astonishing in the film and is giving the performance of the year and a performance for the ages.

Sean Penn for Milk will win. Why? Actor Oscars usually go to people who protrayed physical or mental disabilities or diseases--Sean Penn's charactor was homosexual who fought for civil rights.

Not a diesase, but because of the prejudice faced could be viewed as a disability. It is his fifth nomination, with only one win. Actors often get it as a way of righting a past "wrong."Who should win?

Johnny Depp. Okay, so he wasn't in anything to be nominated. But I think he deserves to win the Oscar.

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Will and should - Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight Ledger on Sunday night will become the second actor to win an Oscar after his or her death. Critics' associations from Boston to Washington have lauded his performance, and he's already won just about every supporting actor award there is, including the Golden Globe. A villain of absolute, unquenchable evil who loves reminding Batman how they are simply two sides of the same obsession, was the engine that drove The Dark Knight to its box-office success.

If an actor other than Ledger wins the supporting actor Oscar, Congress may be called on to investigate. Watch his performance in Brokeback Mountain, for which he was a nominee for Academy Award for Best Actor for this performance, making him, at age 26, the ninth youngest nominee for a Best Actor Oscar. Brokeback Mountain snub will be the reason for his win this time!

Who Will Win – Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight). He would have won if he was alive, so the fact that he isn't shouldn't matter. He did an incredible job with this character, and he deserves the recognition.

Who Should Win – Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight). I also loved Heath Ledger in the 2006 love story 'Candy. ' s range as an actor was truly remarkable.

Heath Ledger hands down should win. S performance in the Dark Knight as the Joker was beyond good. It was spot on as to how the joker would be in real life.

He brought so much to the role, and it's a shame we'll never be able to see his take on the Joker ever again. He should win this, even if the movie wins no other awards (even though it should :/). Why so serious?

This will be a hot topic one for sure. Ledger will win. Here's an interview with Ledger talking about his role as The Joker: youtube.com/watch?v=uKa-aDga1fE Regardless of his death, a lot of folks consider his performance to have outshined the rest of the cast in the movie.In such a well acted movie, that's tough to do.

I think that this movie will win and rightly so - it should win.

Heath Ledger will win. They say dying usually gets you an Oscar, but that is not true. Only one actor has ever won an Oscar posthumously: Peter Finch in 1976 for Network.

Many more have been nominated and not won: 1928/9 Jeanne Eagels, The Letter (actress) 1955 James Dean, East of Eden (actor) 1956 James Dean, Giant (actor) 1967 Spencer Tracy, Guess Who's Coming to Dinner (actor) 1976 Peter Finch, Network (actor) 1984 Ralph Richardson, Greystoke: The Legend of Tarzan, Lord of the Apes (supporting actor) 1995 Massimo Troisi, Il Postino (actor & screenplay).

Heath Ledger will win. It an odd case of intuition based on: - he's dead. (sorry, Darcy, this is my intuition not fact) - he didn't win for Brokeback Mountain - I don't think the movie will get any other major awards - the Golden Globe award he won for Dark Knight paved the way.

I actually think Sean Penn should win for Milk, though.

Will win: Kate Winslet for The Reader The year 2009, is shaping up to be a great one for Kate Winslet. She's already pocketed two golden globes and the supporting-actress trophy at the Critics Choice Awards. Winslet is now the favorite for best actress.

She is due to break the 5 nominations and no Oscar curse. The sixth time should be a winner for her. Should win: Meryl Streep for Doubt Meryl Streep's "Doubt"performance had the Streep-y accent thing, but laid atop a creation of shallow-hearted complexity.

Loved Kate in Holy Smoke! (1999). Though Premiere magazine named her performance as Clementine Kruczynski in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind the 81st greatest film performance of all time.

Kate Winslet *will* and *should*. Though I actually preferred her performance in Revolutionary Road this year, she was fantastic in The Reader. Such a complex character.My favourite past Winslet film is "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind", where everyone in the cast was just fantastic.

Kate Winslet will win for The Reader. Meryl Streep should win for Doubt.

Will win: WALL-E It earned near-universal praise from film critics and audiences alike, it's nominated in five other categories -- there was even some talk of nominating it for Best Picture. Should win -Kung Fu Panda The Jack Black comedy swept the 36th Annual Annie Awards, which honor the finest in animated productions, taking home 10 trophies. WALL-E got zero.

Panda won for writing, directing, voice-acting, and production design, as well as best picture. Even its video game beat WALL-E's! Waltz With Bashir--nominated for Best Foreign Film but robbed in the animation category as Israel's official Oscar entry.

I think that it's going to be close between Kung Fu Panda and Wall-E. However, I think that the environmental message and heart string pulling storyline of Wall-E will put it above. youtube.com/watch?v=UblUO0LjPUg.

Kung-Fu Panda will win. It's message is deep. It's story is good.It's action scenes are awesome.

Plus it's hilarious. Haven't seen any other great animated film in 2008.

Wall-E will win this category. Although I thought it was only cute, I still think it should win as well.

My guess is that due to the popularity, marketing, and cuteness-factor Wall-E will likely win the award. In my opinion, however, Kung Fu Panda is a better movie. KungFuPanda had better story and plot.It didn't completely seem like something out of a kid's book.

Wall-E felt very dimmed down version of a movie that could go somewhere, but it just missed the mark, imo. Of course, Wall-E seemed more technically advanced with all the cool effects.

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